Twin Cities Counting

There are many statistics to check out when looking at the bridge collapse across the Mississippi River in Minnesota.

When the reports first started coming in the news channels started giving possible fatalities and casualties. At different times the death toll was a different number, but low, anywhere from 4 to 8 deaths. By the second day of coverage it was 4 people and about 30 were reported missing. So until divers can dig out the bridge pieces and get to the many cars below, how many total deaths is still uncertain. Now, I think it is down to 8 missing.

But after it all is added up, the number of deaths is lower than I expected when the news first broke. The collapse happened at evening rush hour and the bridge hit the water within about 4 seconds after the initial break, which would lead one to imagine that the deaths would be higher.
I would have guessed in the area of 25 to 40 deaths.

The bigger statistic is the number of bridges in the U.S. that probably have deficiencies such as the I-35 bridge. I don't even have to look it up, I'm guessing at least 25% of our bridges need serious repair or replacement. And it isn't a wild predictions to estimate that another bridge will collapse in the next few years. One could almost predict which bridge will next fall down by finding out all the other bridges that have been inspected as deficient, which are the oldest, which has the most traffic, and any other information that might be available. Narrow down the best choices and also keep informed as to whether these bridges are being addressed, fixed or replaced.

Bridges have fallen before and they will fall again, especially if our country just views the I-35 images but then ignores what it sees.

Modern Prophecy

WE are ALL prophets. We all predict things and we do this every day, all day long. Prophecy is nothing but a prediction of the future based on prior assumptions and current knowledge. We predict things because we LIVE in the future. By this I mean that almost everything we do is because we decided that if we did it, the future would be better. Some people base their actions more on emotion or incorrect analysis of the information available about the past.

Most of our predictions are very mundane. We don't even realize that we are making a prediction. For instance, when I get ready for work I do that under the belief that the location of my job is still there. I've predicted the building is as it was the last time I was there. I don't phone the location to see if the building is still there as I get dressed because this is a mundane prediction based on the history of the building always being there when I arrive.

At the same time I'm predicting that my car will start, that the roads will still be there, that even if the building is still there that I can use it. I may have my doubts about the sureness of some of these predictions. The weather is cold so maybe my car won't start, the traffic may be jammed causing a long delay, or the building may not have any power and I won't be able to do my job. Many of these things may have happened before to me or I had heard about it happening to others. These fleeting "worries" that might briefly pop to mind are quick analysis of what the future might be for me other than a normal predicted day.

Introduction

I've come to a point where I question everything. So, I needed a way to judge whether something is true, false or ambiguous. I wanted a way to know whether what I believed and what I learned was worth believing in.

I like statistics. They help a person understand the world. They also can be used to deceive. A person needs to know if ideas and speech are legitimate or nothing but propaganda, spin, or lies. I've come to giving my beliefs a percentage, based on what I already know and new information coming in.

For instance, my belief in UFOs is about 35%, at least at this point in time. Years before I nearly fully believed, around 95%. My belief in UFOs has been slowly falling as a percentage as the years go by and as I judge all the information that gets to my brain.

I never completely believe or disbelieve anything. Nothing gets 100% or is fully impossible. There is near full believe, 99.5%, something so true it's difficult to think of something that causes the belief to not be 100%. Yet, I just won't believe that something considered perfectly explainable won't somehow get turned on its' head and become entirely unbelievable due to new information.

The world was flat, now it's round. The percent of belief in a flat Earth at one time in history was probably about 80% to 90% until a new theory called round Earth completely changed that mass belief which includes many different individual beliefs. Now the percent is more like 15% or 20% believe and as an individual my belief in a flat Earth is only about .05%. There is a Flat Earth Society that claims to still believe the old theory.

Essentially many of my opinions are the result of taking in the information from the world and fitting it into a large view of everything. This would be based on each piece of information and the percent of the belief that I take in and whether it might change the overall view.

What do I nearly fully believe or disbelieve? Hmmmmm.....

Well, that is what this blog is for. You will see at what percent I believe in something when the new information comes in. I will comment on news, science, religion, philosophy, advertising, politics, and statistics will all help guide my rating a percentage. This may sound boring, but the blogs will have very little raw numbers data, but educated guesses, trends, historical precedent, and anything that helps fill in a belief possibility.